I’ll be speaking at the Australian Medical Professionals’ Society (AMPS) event in Sydney’s Eastern Suburbs on Monday evening. I’ve put the flyer at the end of this post. Together with Dr Phillip Altman and Clare Pain we’ll be presenting the data on Excess Mortality we showed in Parliament a month ago, with a little bit more time to do so. I’ll also make some comment on the New Zealand data release that I’ll mention a bit more on below.
The event will be an opportunity to purchase the hard copy book that has been published by AMPS. This will support the great work being done by the AMPS doctors.
However, for people in Sydney I have to provide a warning. You shouldn’t be risking going to this event. On news.com.au I saw the headline on my news feed a few days ago:
“Top doc’s brutal COVID advice…”
Our so called “Top doc” (who hasn’t seen patients for decades), resident health expert, Dr Norman Swan is at it again for Christmas.
One of the leading health commentators during the height of the Covid pandemic has said Australians should consider wearing masks and staying outdoors to avoid ruining Christmas as cases once again surge.
Talking on The Project on Tuesday night, Dr Norman Swan, who presents the Health Report on the ABC and has consistently warned of the risk of underestimating Covid-19, also said people should “put their big boy pants on” and get a fresh vaccine if they hadn’t had one in more than a year.
Of course Swan was an advisor on the reality TV show the Biggest Loser, where people were unsustainably driven to lose weight, often with adverse health outcomes.
I kept the promo for another reality show on Channel 10, The Bachelor, in the screenshot I took for the image above. It seemed fitting, to go with Dr Swan’s advice: “Will you accept this dose?”
If you want to heed Swan, with his big boy pants, then get a fresh dose, and don’t come to the pub (which is indoors) on Monday night for the talk.
New Zealand Data
Some big news on the release of data from New Zealand (NZ) by a whistle-blower. Recently elected NZ parliamentarian, Liz Gunn, has been referring to a whistle-blower with information on deaths related to vaccination in NZ. Two days ago she released a video with the whistle-blower. He is named “Winston Smith”, for the time being. Winston was responsible for maintaining data collected from vaccination sites in NZ. He was alarmed with what he saw in the data and good conscience has made him release this data. You can find the video on rumble made by Liz Gunn with “Winston” here. This substack provides a summary of the video.
For the data people I found the graphs shown are an interesting way to see excess deaths by cutting the data below a certain threshold.
Steve Kirsch
Steve Kirsch was one of the people this data was made available to, at the beginning of November (at least I understand it’s the same data). I was invited to a call with a few other analysts a week ago to review the data and the analysis that Kirsch and his inner team performed.
This is a very important dataset. Steve is very quick to say game over. However, I think there has to be some caution about drawing absolute conclusions too soon.
There are some complexities. There always is, unless one is the custodian of the dataset and understands its provenance. Apparently, NZ has two systems for recording data from vaccinations within the country. The data released is from one of those systems. I think it’s based on vaccination sites being part of one system or the other. However it could be based on the payment system. What this means is that if people got injections at different sites they may not be in the same dataset. For example, some people appear for the first time at Dose 3. For others there are records of every dose 1,2,3 and upwards.
One thing that surprised me was the amount of what he calls the Healthy Vaccinee Effect. In other words, in theory, people close to the end of life are not given the vaccine. This leads to a lower number of deaths proximal to vaccination. In Australia authorities were pretty keen to vaccinate everyone in sight. I have certainly been told anecdotes of vaccinators going into nursing homes and vaccinating elderly even when family had given explicit instructions not to. I assume it was similar in New Zealand with their “Single Source of Truth” Prime Minister at the time.
So, unlike the flu vaccine data from the US which Kirsch shows in his presentation, this early peak isn't seen for the COVID vaccine data in New Zealand. That surprised me. I tried to compare rates of death from NZ mortality data as a sanity check but I’m still working on that. What I have learnt is that NZ had some differences in their mortality patterns compared to us here. One would think they should be similar, in that we were locked down similar duration, kept COVID out etc. This firms my impression that the country health system also plays as an important factor in mortality in these sorts of circumstances.
The following is a histogram I have generated. I did a filter of people over 80 years old. We know the elderly are the ones who have been most affected from our Australian data. Each bar represents the number of people who have died in a 30-day period from the time of vaccination. In this case it is the 3rd dose being looked at. The graph should be flat. I’ll be writing more about this.
The progressive increase in number of deaths in the period directly after vaccination, with a peak at about 5 months, is the concern.
The event where Kirsch released his findings was today (Australian time) and is linked here (on rumble). It was held in an MIT hall, actually named after him because of donations he has made to the institute. During the pandemic Kirsch was not allowed to talk at the hall named after him when he approached the university. He was allowed in this instance because of a technicality that he was invited by some students to speak.
The video is worth watching. It is good to see two young students, promoting academic freedom, introducing the talk. It is also amusing to see Kevin McKernan (of the Human Genome Project fame and for his recent analysis of contamination of mRNA vaccines) sitting quietly in the audience. He asks a question at the end. He humbly says he had been at MIT and done some work there.
If you are in Sydney I hope to see you on Monday evening.
"Winston Smith" is Barry Young.
The csv file is being examined very closely by other data deep diver friends.
Igor Chudov is also doing a dive on it. Judging from his Substack offering today it’s not looking good. The csv conversion shows the data used may be ‘incomplete’ which skews the results.