First of all Lena and I hope everyone had a joyous Christmas and we wish you all a Happy New Year, as I write on the last day of 2023.
For us it was our first Christmas with two new grandchildren and this has certainly brought joy into our lives. Seeing our own children develop as parents is also a rewarding experience.
Healthcare Systems
I have been tracking various healthcare system issues in Australia which I plan to write on more fully in the New Year.
Our legacy media has had numerous reports in the last year of failures in the Australian hospital and health systems. There have been unnecessary deaths due to mistakes or caused by a broken system. Just about every state in Australia has a problem with what is termed ”ambulance ramping”. This is where the ambulances that arrive at a hospital are not allowed to leave until the patient is formally admitted into the hospital. When the hospital is not dealing with patients in a timely manner, which includes the patients arriving via the Emergency Department directly, this backlog has a flow-on effect. The ambulances are stuck and cannot go to the next job. People end up dying as care does not arrive in time.
Solutions I’ve seen proposed vary from as stupid as getting rid of any ramps to the hospital so there can’t be any ramping (yes really). Setting up some intermediate admission centre so the ambulances can leave the patients and get going. There was also a report of one health system arbitrarily giving priority to the ambulance admissions in preference to the ED just to make the metrics look better for the media. They got found out. At least the legacy media still do some useful reporting, albeit through whistle-blowers. Of course, none of this solves the fundamental systemic problems.
Another experience during the year gave me an insight into the Australian health system, where I was an expert witness in a case related to a termination due to mandates. I was made aware of various Freedom of Information documents that gave some insight into the health system in one state.
Blunt termination of front-line staff was applied as a result of a “Health Directive”. Any exemptions given appeared to not be applied in a statistically even fashion across hospitals or categories of staff. Surprisingly (or not) overall staff numbers were being made up by more Administration category staff.
It was clear that staff sickness, seen through staff absence days, distinctly increased from March 2021. Of course, this is when certain therapies were made available and there was no COVID in the community. Sick days also increased, in a fully vaccinated workforce, exactly in line with the COVID waves that hit Australia in January 2022. Exactly what the therapies were meant to stop.
The so called “Health Directive” made people sick!
And a bureaucracy that still maintains that its measures were justified.
I also learnt a lot about the level of evidence that is needed in the legal system. For example, to immediately cut a certain percentage of staff and expect there to be no adverse impact to healthcare is absurd to any normal thinking person. But when challenged with what evidence one has to prove that, one realises the data needed to be able to incontrovertibly prove it in a court of law. Common sense doesn’t necessarily hold any sway. One thing I learnt was strong statistical arguments need to be made. I have to get better at that.
Australian Excess Mortality
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released it’s last mortality report for 2023, with data up till September 2023. Mortality appears to have tracked back to the baseline.
The blue line in the graph above is for 2023 up to September, noting that we know the last three months of this data will invariably increase over the next year as further death reports trickle into the system.
Back to baseline, so all should be good, right? The pandemic is over.
Well, we should have a reasonable expectation that excess mortality should go into deficit at some point. The frail people who died, from or with COVID, with median age above the population wide median age of death, are not dying now, so there should be less deaths than normally expected.
A useful simplistic way I have found to look at mortality is via a cumulative sum. Just keep adding up deaths week on week.
OK first here’s the raw data from the latest ABS report.
When you set the y axis for deaths from zero, it’s not immediately obvious that excess mortality is occurring. Certainly, the January 2022 Omicron wave and the 2022 Winter waves stick out. The bad flu season of 2017 sticks out as well. However, if you eyeball the local minimum values, which is in our Summer, you can see the trend has shifted up.
Now we calculate the cumulative sum from the start of the data in 2015. See the blue line in the graph below for the sum up to the latest data for September 2023. I have plotted on top of this, in orange, the data only up till March 2021.
The orange line looks like a straight line. I do a linear fit to this line, which is the orange dotted line, extending it out to September 2023. The slope of this line tells us the rate of deaths. Take any two points in time, subtract the number of deaths at those times and you get the deaths per time period. As population changes (eg grows) it will shift the fit.
It’s hard, with the y axis scale, to see the exact point of the change in trend. You can definitely see the blue line tips upwards at the end. We can subtract the linear fit line, from the data up to the latest date, and get a rough idea of the excess. See the graph below.
The result is stark. We see clearly where the trend ticks upwards, ie second quarter 2021.
It seems by the end of 2023 it will be about 60,000 excess! That’s about one third of the deaths expected in a normal year in Australia. And there’s no sign of it going down.
To be clear this is a very simplistic analysis, but simple models can be useful and this is probably not too far off the mark.
We know we have to look a lot deeper to really understand what is going on. I have used the simple total of all ages. Joel Smalley wrote an excellent series of articles during the year. He purchased data in the UK for one year age bands. The analysis approach he used is similar to above, ie using the cumulative sum, but he did it for each one year age band and then went back and combined them. I have simply used a linear fit for the cumulative mortality. Joel went into some detail about better fit methods. You can see above the cumulative trend must not have been quite linear. There is a sort of a bowl shape to the normal period before March 2021.
Other Countries
I went looking for other country mortality data, in particular those countries that appear to not be experiencing the same level of excess mortality as in many Western countries. Some complain here in Australia that the ABS data is not up to date. But for other countries the data is, in some cases, years behind. The ABS is probably one of the best organisations of its kind.
John Campbell’s last video of the year on excess deaths, at the 14 minute mark he shows data from Hungary and Poland were excess mortality is close to zero.
A possible explanation is that some of those countries were less enthusiastic about participating in experimental therapies. See for example:
Pfizer sues Poland over unclaimed covid vaccines.
Of course, it’s complicated because some of these countries had high mortality early in the pandemic. If deaths of frail people are brought forward, we expect a deficit in later years. Some of these countries have an overall lower life expectancy for a range of reasons. This article highlights the general health issues in Poland.
Those now in their 80’s now were born in the 1940’s and particularly for countries in Eastern Europe, with the extreme hardships at that time in history, I suspect this has an important effect on the health of those people. I strongly believe nutrition and healthcare in the formative years has an effect on longevity.
I think it will probably take at least another 5 years to get a deeper understanding of worldwide mortality trends due to the data lags in various countries.
While talking about other countries I have been closely tracking the analysis and discussions on the data from New Zealand. Starting to look at mortality data from other countries is so much work to really understand what’s going on. It’s been hard enough to understand our Australian mortality data.
It seems there are so many points of view about the NZ data. The bottom line for me is that it has highlighted the importance of record level data. It’s the only way we will really know the true impact of the “health measures” that were imposed.
But that’s enough for now. Time to think about all the good things of this year, the achievements and the new friendships. We can only hope and pray that the horrible wars that are going on have some resolution or at least move in a positive direction for the sake of those suffering.
I wish you all the best for the New Year.
Thank you Andrew and Leena for continuing to support and fight for the truth and freedom of us all. Your ongoing efforts and unwavering commitment are appreciated more than you will ever know. We pray that you and your family to be blessed always 🙏
Wishing you and Lena a Happy New Year.
Thanks for the great work you’ve done so far and I look forward to reading more of your posts in the new year.
Enjoy your time with the grandkids.
Interesting Poland is being sued, I always suspected the contracts were take or pay. 😀
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Take-or-pay_contract
If you’re interested, I recently discovered Madeline Love’s substack. She’s got a pretty good handle on GMOs which initially got me interested in her comments in regard to gene therapy etc. as this is an area I know almost nothing about. It turns out she is also a pretty good data analyst (actuary). She’s just bought herself some death data from the ABS and I’m looking forward to reading about what she finds in the new year. I think she’s also looked at the health care system in regard to ambulance ramping, emergency calls etc. mostly in Victoria from memory.
https://madeleinelove.substack.com/p/i-bought-some-death-data
The NZ data is interesting but I don’t think it’s the smoking gun Steve Kirsch thinks it is. I did a back of envelope calculation based on WelcomeTheEagle88’s dashboard to see if there was anything worth looking at in the data. I’m too much of a chicken shit to have actually downloaded the data. I was worried my file servers might “accidentally disappear”. Turns out my initial paranoia about downloading the data was probably justified.
My back of envelope calculations were very similar to the method used by Arkmedic/Openvaet. My calculations weren’t as detailed as theirs, for example I didn’t bother breaking it down by age groups like they did but I pretty much reached the same conclusions with regards to the overall patterns seen in the NZ data. My initial crude calculations and the more detailed Arkmedic/Openvaet analysis suggest to me that the patterns seen in the NZ data are pretty much in line with what you would expect to see given the rollout timing and the usual winter increases in all cause mortality. There might be a small signal there (I couldn’t see one), if it is there it’s swamped by “noise” and the usual pattern of all cause morality.
https://openvaet.substack.com/p/the-new-zealand-whistleblower-data?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=post_embed&utm_medium=web
William Briggs approached it from a different angle and pretty much reached the same conclusion i.e. no smoking gun.
https://wmbriggs.substack.com/p/new-zealand-vaccine-data-possible
Also, Norman Fenton:
“The dataset is a very large subset of those vaccinated in New Zealand, and is potentially one of the most important publicly available datasets for examining COVID vaccine safety. But I don’t believe it is the ‘smoking gun’ as some have claimed.”
A good summary of the evidence can be found here:
https://childrenshealthdefense.org/defender/new-zealand-covid-vaccine-deaths-data-leak/
I don’t think there is anything nefarious going on with Steve or Barry like Arkmedic seems to suggest. I think it’s just Steve jumping the gun again without doing a proper analysis. Which is a shame for Barry, he’s sacrificed his career and might end up doing time for what I think will essentially turn out to be a small blip that doesn’t really move the needle in the overall scheme of things.