I made a mistake in some numbers I presented in my previous post. I think I was angry with myself for subscribing to legacy media for a month to try to get some data. I update the figures further down in this article.
Reader Bel commented on the previous post about inquiries made to various SA authorities to find this “published” report. No-one seemed to know about it! Bel found this summary:
It doesn’t provide much more information than the press release but it provides a few details and a clue about the type of analysis. This is the great thing about Substack, when people engage in good dialog we get insights by working together.
So we find there were a total of 2 deaths with age under 60. I suspect these will have been people with multiple comorbidities. That fact that it does not mention their vaccination status means they were vaccinated. Similar small numbers were seen in the NSW reports.
So an alternative headline could have been:
“All deaths under 60 are vaccinated!”
Of course this would just as absurd as the headline from the SAHMRI report. Reader Ivo, who has provided a lot of helpful insights, writes his own substack, amusingly called KRAP
In the comments he provided links and commentary on the complicated situation of who the authorities are saying should get the 5th dose. As Ivo puts it they could have said:
“ATAGI does not recommend a 5th dose to most people under 65.”
We find something from the SAHMRI summary about the type of analysis. Bayesian logistic regression. I made a note on this in the comments of my previous article.
SAHMRI worked out that age increases the chance of death. Hmmm. It would be a breakthrough if they found otherwise.
We find some detail on the “5 times more likely to die” ratio. They are comparing unvaccinated with those with 3 or 4 doses. Compared with people with 1 or 2 doses the unvaccinated are only 2 times more likely to die. Phew.
In my previous post I mis-wrote when I gave some numbers. At the present time (last government update 13 Jan) For South Australia, ages 16+, people with 2 doses are 92.0% of that population. I should go back and find number for the quarter last year but you need the wayback machine for that. Too much trouble for this exercise.
By the way it is 93.7% with one dose. Which means that up to 2% of people in this age group likely had an adverse reaction and did not to risk a second dose, even though they might lose employment. In the 5-15 age group it is a difference of 61.1% - 52.8% = 8.3%. So 8% of children must have had a bad reaction to injection or parents had second thoughts. The highest difference for children is 10.1% for state of WA and 11.4% for NT.
There are:
92,556 people 16+ with no dose (SA population age 16+ minus one dose people)
1,029,898 people 16+ with 3 dose (which also includes 4 dose, although only available for age 30+ till last week)
When I do the sums, assuming the rate of people dying is 5 times higher in the unvaccinated, and assuming a total of 350 COVID deaths, I come up with an estimate of 6 people unvaccinated of the 350 unfortunate deaths.
However this is not quite right because the 350 was for people of all doses. We don’t know how many people there are for the COVID deaths in 0, 3 and 4 doses. But it gives the idea that they will be basing this five times ratio on a very small number of unvaccinated people dying. In the summary above they say:
among those aged 80+, those who were not vaccinated were more likely die as a result of COVID-19 than those who had been vaccinated.
So there it is. Most of the handful of people who were unvaccinated must have been age 80+ for them to be able to say this.
Are these senior anti-vaxxers behaving irresponsibly. Like the nice lady below.
These are the ones causing car accidents during full moons.
What irks me the most is that the idiots doing this analysis can’t understand that there are very different categories of people. Maybe the researchers never leave their homes to see what goes on in the world? Maybe they never ever went to a nursing home? All analysis has to be age stratified. Within ages groups there are then very different subcategories. There are people with robust health in their 80’s and there are people close to end of life.
There have been warnings about vaccinating frail elderly people. Vaccinating people close to end of life could very easily hasten death.
Stupid analysis with advanced techniques does nothing to help the health of Australians.
If I quoted numbers like this, with no errors quoted, in my first year university experimental Physics lab, many years ago, the grumpy old lab manager would have kicked me out.
But people like simple numbers.
New Australian Senator Ralph Babet raised his concerns in the Australian Senate, in the last few days, about the unprecedented number of excess deaths occurring in Australia.
The video is about 5 minutes. Fortunately there are many senators in the chamber. In other question times, when inconvenient questions have been asked, the senators seem to go missing.
His questions were addressed to the Senator, the Hon Katy Gallagher, who is the Minister for Finance, Minister for Women, Minister for the Public Service. At 3:57 in the video posted in the tweet, she states that people her age are 32 times more likely to end up in hospital if not vaccinated!
Oh my goodness! Where does this number come from?
Even the SA report says unvaccinated are 8 times more likely to be hospitalised. Searching for her age I find it was 52 last year. In NSW there were zero unvaccinated people in hospital many weeks last year.
Towards the end of her final response to Senator Babet’s questions she recommends people keep up to date with the 5th dose, now available. But then it gets worse. She says:
“It’s not just an individual’s decision in keeping yourself safe, it’s keeping other people safe from this virus. People who aren’t able to be as protected as some of us. So actually it’s a community responsibility to be vaccinated.”
OMG. Someone should inform her of the “Speed of Science”. “We never tested for….”
Thanks to Rob “please say it clearly” Roos, Dutch European Member of Parliament. His twitter post here.
Professor Adrian Esterman, epidemiologist, ex-WHO, tweeted on the SAHMRI report.
calling it “an excellent South Australian analysis” even though no one can find it. There is a barage of comments on how come this data is different to other countries UK, NZ etc? The commentary is worth a look. There are some useful references and some amusing ones. Someone pointed out that on the page of the news article he references there was one of those IQ Test advertisements 😊
I better stop now. I’ll make mistakes in any analysis I do.
But to wrap up, at the Dr Peter McCullough event last week, we ran into my old friend Father David Smith, the “Fighting Father”. We are organising a community ball, which will fund raise for his work with disadvantaged youth. He has taken a very difficult route helping those in the community that other organisations find too difficult to deal with.
As we were waiting in line to go into the auditorium Senator Babet was walking past and stopped to say hello. Photo of Father Dave and Senator Babet.
You can see Father Dave’s take on the events of the last few years in video embedded here:
Watch the first few minutes. Powerful message at 2:00.
The booking system for the event on Saturday 29 April 2023 is now open
https://www.trybooking.com/eventlist/eventListingURL?aid=177504
It’s not Eventbrite, so no problems being cancelled.
A small part of the ticket cost will go to a donation. A full 3 course meal and drinks are included.
We are also very pleased to have Professor Gigi Foster speaking. She has been a voice of sanity. Some of her media appearances:
From ABC TV “QandA” program here.
See the drop the mike bit from 11:25 till end. She toured with Dr Jay Battacharya when he was out here:
From 7:21 till 8:19 is good. Also an excellent long form interview on Epoch Times.
We also hope to have an update from our NSW Firefighters. Hopefully by this time the absurd mandate will be dropped.
I am writing a special piece on Father Dave’s work. Stay tuned.
South Australian Numbers
It was annoying watching the minister Kate Gallagher talking about excess deaths. Suddenly old people are dying of dementia again whereas in 2020/ 21 they were dying of covid even if they had dementia or other comorbidities that could have been responsible for their deaths. She also hasn’t got the memo that the vaccine does not stop transmission. Another puppet in the system just being fed lies and spewing them back with no critical thinking skills.
Thanks for the shout out. Look forward to meeting up with you and a bunch of like minded people at the event. 👍