A Step Closer to an Inquiry into Excess Deaths
while our Prime Minister "shakes it off"
Michael Arbon, Advisor to Senator Ralph Babet, reported yesterday that the Australian Senate voted in favour of Senator Babet’s general business motion around excess deaths in Australia. 31 Senators supported the motion and 30 voted against.
General business notice of motion no. 462—That the Senate acknowledges that:
(a) the concerning number of excess deaths observed in Australia in 2021 and 2022 has continued into 2023 as evidenced by all-cause provisional mortality data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics; and
(b) there is a need for further inquiry as to the reasons for these excess deaths.
The motion can be found here. This motion does not create or refer to a committee, but is symbolic of a changing sentiment around this issue. The outcome of the vote can be viewed here.
In the linked page you can see each how each individual Senator voted. I was wondering why I couldn’t see certain Senators names in the voting. The way the numbers works is a bit complicated because there is what is called a pairing process where some senators can’t attend they pair off with opposing members.
A few weeks ago, a similar motion was voted down by 35 to 30, as reported by Rebekah Barnett. A few independents must have had a change of mind and are now supportive of the inquiry. Now it is only the Labour and Greens parties opposing as a block.
An Inquiry seems a step closer.
Meanwhile
Dr John Campbell is bemused by a sudden change in the excess mortality calculation by the ONS. We just watched this one from a few days ago.
This has led to a change in the UK from an excess to a deficit towards the end of 2023. He shows a page with a detailed equation and apparently no explanation.
We’ll have to have a closer look into this new method and add it to the ones to compare. What caught my attention is that for some reason they have a variable for “region” in there. I don’t know what that’s about?
Data analysts know that you can make the data tell you anything if you torture it long enough.
I have thought a lot about this manipulation of the baseline. Remember we are making estimates of what the baseline or expected number of deaths is at the end of 2023 from data in 2015-2019, when things were considered “normal”.
It is so easy to tip the predicted trend line slightly upwards so that the excess looks less than it actually is at times in the future. However, we have ways so that these tricks are uncovered. As I have noted before the cumulative value is one of them.
The Australian numbers are updated later this week. We’ll see if the levelling off that was apparent at the last update has continued.
Meanwhile
Our Prime Minister is not too concerned about excess mortality.
We are in the midst of Taylor Swift mania, during her current tour of Australia. Prime Minister “Albo” got his free tickets and has been shown dancing in the crowd. This seems to have upset some people.
I’m not sure whether the “slamming” is because of the dance moves or the insensitivity to the cost-of-living crisis. But apparently it helps him connect with young people (although I’m not sure if those moves will help him connect).
He also found time to attend another concert over the weekend. Katy Perry was flown out to Australia to sing at a Billionaires private party. Our Prime Minister also found time for that party. He must be exhausted.
To get the “Shake it Up” music with the dancing in the the video I have linked to the time in the following Sky News piece. Also a bit of sneaked footage from the private Katy Perry concert.
AMPS Talk
Hope to see some of you at the East Cessnock Bowling Club for our AMPS talk next weekend. Clare Pain has posted details here.
