The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has just released mortality data up till January 30 2022. Unfortunately, the data is 3 months behind real time but it’s the best we have. I note that the ABS does do a good job when it comes to releasing and presenting data, compared with other Australian agencies. The headline graph from the report is below:
Hi Ivo, you are correct about insurance companies. They will definitely see the signal and feel it on the bottom line. Funeral directors also.
Estimation of the baseline is critical and that's challenging.
But the ultimate measure is what Prof Norman Fenton says, ie all cause mortality with vaxxed and unvaxxed specified with no mucking around with 14 days after etc.
I'll have a look at John Dee's work. Thanks for the reference
Thanks this is a nice article. Based on data that I believe may be in the same ABS report from which you have drawn the first graph in your article, I feel the excess is primarily related to increase in deaths from non-COVID diseases such as Cancer, Diabetes and Dementia. There are good graphs in the ABS report that indicate this. I hypothesise that contributing factors to this would be that people were unable to access diagnostic services and treatment for a myriad of reasons. This would include lockdowns, restrictions, the redirection of Health resources to COVID measures, staff shortages due to mandates, quarantine rules and possibly a general reluctance to seek other health services due to fear of COVID.
Actually, forget about what I said about the change in baseline. I was looking at your article on my phone and my old eyes didn’t notice the red spike at the end. I thought it was just the black COViD-19 line. No shift in baseline will make that much difference. When I looked at it on my computer screen it stuck out like a sore thumb.
The analysis by insurance companies has me the most concerned, especially the 10 sigma (If I recall correctly) rise in deaths amongst working age adults. Their data should be very good as they have competition and a profit motive to consider i.e. good actuarial data = competitive pricing and profit.
I thought Australian had been spared from the worst of it based on the previous ABS data. It might be worth having a look at the data against the old baseline to see if the change in baseline has an effect.
The ABS is pretty transparent so you can go back and see all their previous revisions. In fact, I’m going to look at that shortly, now that you’ve reminded me a new data set is available.
Co-incidentally John Dee has been looking at UK all cause deaths on his substack this week as well. Might be worth a look. Thanks again for another great article.
Hi Ivo, you are correct about insurance companies. They will definitely see the signal and feel it on the bottom line. Funeral directors also.
Estimation of the baseline is critical and that's challenging.
But the ultimate measure is what Prof Norman Fenton says, ie all cause mortality with vaxxed and unvaxxed specified with no mucking around with 14 days after etc.
I'll have a look at John Dee's work. Thanks for the reference
Thanks Andrew. I’ll look forward to reading the new article!
Thanks this is a nice article. Based on data that I believe may be in the same ABS report from which you have drawn the first graph in your article, I feel the excess is primarily related to increase in deaths from non-COVID diseases such as Cancer, Diabetes and Dementia. There are good graphs in the ABS report that indicate this. I hypothesise that contributing factors to this would be that people were unable to access diagnostic services and treatment for a myriad of reasons. This would include lockdowns, restrictions, the redirection of Health resources to COVID measures, staff shortages due to mandates, quarantine rules and possibly a general reluctance to seek other health services due to fear of COVID.
Actually, forget about what I said about the change in baseline. I was looking at your article on my phone and my old eyes didn’t notice the red spike at the end. I thought it was just the black COViD-19 line. No shift in baseline will make that much difference. When I looked at it on my computer screen it stuck out like a sore thumb.
Hi Andrew. Thanks for the informative article.
Has the mainstream media picked up on this?
The analysis by insurance companies has me the most concerned, especially the 10 sigma (If I recall correctly) rise in deaths amongst working age adults. Their data should be very good as they have competition and a profit motive to consider i.e. good actuarial data = competitive pricing and profit.
I thought Australian had been spared from the worst of it based on the previous ABS data. It might be worth having a look at the data against the old baseline to see if the change in baseline has an effect.
The ABS is pretty transparent so you can go back and see all their previous revisions. In fact, I’m going to look at that shortly, now that you’ve reminded me a new data set is available.
Co-incidentally John Dee has been looking at UK all cause deaths on his substack this week as well. Might be worth a look. Thanks again for another great article.