Hi Ivo, you are correct about insurance companies. They will definitely see the signal and feel it on the bottom line. Funeral directors also.
Estimation of the baseline is critical and that's challenging.
But the ultimate measure is what Prof Norman Fenton says, ie all cause mortality with vaxxed and unvaxxed specified with no mucking around with 14 days after etc.
I'll have a look at John Dee's work. Thanks for the reference
Hi Andrew, agree entirely. I did skim the ABS data and noticed in their explanation verbiage that some of their methodologies have changed.
Previously, the coroner reported deaths were excluded from the preliminary reports like this one. I think they do eventually include them in the annual and six monthly final reports. Also, they have not included 2021 in the new baseline, so I think it’s a 4 year baseline against the usual 5 year baselines used in all their previous reports.
Does it make a difference? Are their some shenanigans going on with the numbers to hide something? Maybe deaths associated with some other events or intervention that occurred in 2021?
I’m not sure yet, as I haven’t had the time to look at it and make an informed guess one way or the other. They do sort of say they excluded 2021 from the baseline because it would give an exaggerated estimate due to the unusually low death rate in 2021. Possibly, seeing the vaccination and lockdown period against the lower baseline might make it look bad. (i.e. the signal to noise ratio would give more “signal”against a lower “noise” floor, if you get my drift).
Would be interesting to see it broken down by state. WA would sort of act as a control group that would give insight into just how “safe and effective” the lockdowns and vaccines have been. If it was good news I’m sure they’d be shouting it from the roof top.
Also. Dr John Campbell just reviewed WHO excess mortality data on his channel might be worth a look if you get time. Link below if your interested. The Australian graph is interesting. An almost linear rise over the 2 years which I can’t see or didn’t notice when I skimmed the ABS data.
Thanks this is a nice article. Based on data that I believe may be in the same ABS report from which you have drawn the first graph in your article, I feel the excess is primarily related to increase in deaths from non-COVID diseases such as Cancer, Diabetes and Dementia. There are good graphs in the ABS report that indicate this. I hypothesise that contributing factors to this would be that people were unable to access diagnostic services and treatment for a myriad of reasons. This would include lockdowns, restrictions, the redirection of Health resources to COVID measures, staff shortages due to mandates, quarantine rules and possibly a general reluctance to seek other health services due to fear of COVID.
Hi Stan, I agree with your hypothesis. Another month of ABS data for Feb has just come out and I'm working on another article to cover this. The collateral damage if the Public Health measures is becoming apparent. I'm also seeing more and more evidence of vaccine related mortality from other writers.
Actually, forget about what I said about the change in baseline. I was looking at your article on my phone and my old eyes didn’t notice the red spike at the end. I thought it was just the black COViD-19 line. No shift in baseline will make that much difference. When I looked at it on my computer screen it stuck out like a sore thumb.
The analysis by insurance companies has me the most concerned, especially the 10 sigma (If I recall correctly) rise in deaths amongst working age adults. Their data should be very good as they have competition and a profit motive to consider i.e. good actuarial data = competitive pricing and profit.
I thought Australian had been spared from the worst of it based on the previous ABS data. It might be worth having a look at the data against the old baseline to see if the change in baseline has an effect.
The ABS is pretty transparent so you can go back and see all their previous revisions. In fact, I’m going to look at that shortly, now that you’ve reminded me a new data set is available.
Co-incidentally John Dee has been looking at UK all cause deaths on his substack this week as well. Might be worth a look. Thanks again for another great article.
Hi Ivo, you are correct about insurance companies. They will definitely see the signal and feel it on the bottom line. Funeral directors also.
Estimation of the baseline is critical and that's challenging.
But the ultimate measure is what Prof Norman Fenton says, ie all cause mortality with vaxxed and unvaxxed specified with no mucking around with 14 days after etc.
I'll have a look at John Dee's work. Thanks for the reference
Hi Andrew, agree entirely. I did skim the ABS data and noticed in their explanation verbiage that some of their methodologies have changed.
Previously, the coroner reported deaths were excluded from the preliminary reports like this one. I think they do eventually include them in the annual and six monthly final reports. Also, they have not included 2021 in the new baseline, so I think it’s a 4 year baseline against the usual 5 year baselines used in all their previous reports.
Does it make a difference? Are their some shenanigans going on with the numbers to hide something? Maybe deaths associated with some other events or intervention that occurred in 2021?
I’m not sure yet, as I haven’t had the time to look at it and make an informed guess one way or the other. They do sort of say they excluded 2021 from the baseline because it would give an exaggerated estimate due to the unusually low death rate in 2021. Possibly, seeing the vaccination and lockdown period against the lower baseline might make it look bad. (i.e. the signal to noise ratio would give more “signal”against a lower “noise” floor, if you get my drift).
Would be interesting to see it broken down by state. WA would sort of act as a control group that would give insight into just how “safe and effective” the lockdowns and vaccines have been. If it was good news I’m sure they’d be shouting it from the roof top.
Also. Dr John Campbell just reviewed WHO excess mortality data on his channel might be worth a look if you get time. Link below if your interested. The Australian graph is interesting. An almost linear rise over the 2 years which I can’t see or didn’t notice when I skimmed the ABS data.
https://youtu.be/RI57qwB2fQI
Thanks....Ivo
Thanks Andrew. I’ll look forward to reading the new article!
Thanks this is a nice article. Based on data that I believe may be in the same ABS report from which you have drawn the first graph in your article, I feel the excess is primarily related to increase in deaths from non-COVID diseases such as Cancer, Diabetes and Dementia. There are good graphs in the ABS report that indicate this. I hypothesise that contributing factors to this would be that people were unable to access diagnostic services and treatment for a myriad of reasons. This would include lockdowns, restrictions, the redirection of Health resources to COVID measures, staff shortages due to mandates, quarantine rules and possibly a general reluctance to seek other health services due to fear of COVID.
Hi Stan, I agree with your hypothesis. Another month of ABS data for Feb has just come out and I'm working on another article to cover this. The collateral damage if the Public Health measures is becoming apparent. I'm also seeing more and more evidence of vaccine related mortality from other writers.
Actually, forget about what I said about the change in baseline. I was looking at your article on my phone and my old eyes didn’t notice the red spike at the end. I thought it was just the black COViD-19 line. No shift in baseline will make that much difference. When I looked at it on my computer screen it stuck out like a sore thumb.
Hi Andrew. Thanks for the informative article.
Has the mainstream media picked up on this?
The analysis by insurance companies has me the most concerned, especially the 10 sigma (If I recall correctly) rise in deaths amongst working age adults. Their data should be very good as they have competition and a profit motive to consider i.e. good actuarial data = competitive pricing and profit.
I thought Australian had been spared from the worst of it based on the previous ABS data. It might be worth having a look at the data against the old baseline to see if the change in baseline has an effect.
The ABS is pretty transparent so you can go back and see all their previous revisions. In fact, I’m going to look at that shortly, now that you’ve reminded me a new data set is available.
Co-incidentally John Dee has been looking at UK all cause deaths on his substack this week as well. Might be worth a look. Thanks again for another great article.